Brexit: as parliament votes again, what happens next?

By Daniel Boffey in Brussels, The Guardian–

It was by all accounts a “sobering” meeting between the 27 EU ambassadors, the bloc’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, and the most senior of the bloc’s officials, Martin Selmayr, on Thursday afternoon.

No deal was now regarded as the “most plausible outcome”, Barnier warned. But the decision by the EU’s leaders at the summit in Brussels last week to give Theresa May an unconditional article 50 extension pushing the Brexit cliff-edge from 29 March to 12 April leaves all scenarios open.

Here are the possible next steps:

Withdrawal agreement is passed on Friday

The EU has offered an automatic extension of article 50 if May’s deal is ratified by 29 March, delaying Brexit until 22 May. The prime minister had sought an extension to 30 June at the European council summit last week, arguing it could take her three months to get all the necessary withdrawal legislation through the Commons and the Lords even if the withdrawal agreement itself was ratified.

The leaders did not like that idea as it pushed the UK’s membership beyond the European elections. The shorter extension would leave May with a challenge – but Downing Street seems to think it is doable. The separation of the withdrawal agreement alone in front of MPs today and the political declaration on the future relationship does not pose a problem for Brussels.

The withdrawal agreement is the draft treaty. After 22 May, the UK will enter the transition period – effectively 21 months or longer of EU membership but without a say in its decison-making institutions – and talks start on the future relationship.

Withdrawal agreement is rejected but Downing Street is unable to indicate a way forward by 12 April

The leaders said they would consider a lengthy extension to article 50 if the withdrawal agreement was rejected at the third time of asking. They said, however, that they would expect “the United Kingdom to indicate a way forward” before 12 April “for consideration by the European council”.

If Downing Street is in complete paralysis or it rejects any solution that might emerge from the Commons second session of indicative votes on Monday, then the EU’s leaders will be in a spot. They will likely call a summit on 10 April come what may.

The decision will be whether to cut the UK loose, with the expectation that the concomitant no-deal chaos will drag the UK government swiftly back to the negotiating table, or possibly appeal to MPs over the heads of the government. Brussels could offer a lengthy extension with conditions – and let parliament decide what to do next. The EU’s capitals do not want to be on the wrong end of the inevitable blame game.

The Commons backs a softer Brexit

If the Commons was to back a permanent customs union in its indicative votes next week, the EU could “within days” revise the political declaration, the non-binding outline of the future relationship, to set the two negotiating teams on that course. The wording will not be detailed.

The negotiations over the terms of a customs union will be hard fought when they come. Labour has said it would want the British government to have a say in EU trade policy in such a situation.

This is likely to have a pretty messy collision with reality – but that is for a later date once the UK is out. In such a scenario, it is still feasible that the withdrawal agreement and political declaration are ratified by parliament within weeks, and the UK leaves the EU by the 22 May.

The Commons backs a second referendum or the prime minister calls a general election

Both of these scenarios would require a lengthy extension beyond elections for the European parliament. At the summit on 10 April, leaders would decide on the length.

Any extension to article 50 in this scenario would be no shorter than nine months, taking Britain’s membership of the EU up to 31 December 2019. A full year is far more likely and anything up to 21 months is possible, keeping the UK in the bloc until 2021.