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With all the talk about the U.S. economy finally breaking out from the worst recession since the Great Depression, it might be just a bit premature for this to happen this year.

Before anyone pops open the champagne one has to look at various trends that could derail any type of economic resurgence in the U.S.

Hiring has increased to the largest levels in 15 years, and this is showing no sign of slowing down, but what type of jobs are these?  Last month’s Labor Department report showed that he majority of jobs created were in the retail and service sector industry, and manufacturing lost around 8,000 jobs.

Market Watch reported that at the same time, Americans still aren’t shopping as much as they used to, even with a big drop in gasoline prices that’s freed up cash for other uses. Sluggish wage growth is one reason. Paychecks aren’t much bigger now than they were a few years ago. Household debt levels are also still relatively high, perhaps partly explaining why Americans have increased their savings.

Continuing in its reporting Market Watch mentioned that what’s more, large U.S. companies are now being confronted with a soaring dollar that’s made it harder to export — and that’s curbing profits. The strong dollar has already thrown a lasso around manufacturers and it could cause more businesses to rethink their spending plans.

This week the Federal Reserve convenes on Wednesday and at the top of the list of concerns is will the Fed remove its pledge to be “patient” and begin to raise short term interest rates beginning as early as June?

“I would be shocked if ‘patient’ is not removed,” said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics. “Patient” meant the Fed would not raise rates for two meetings. With formal policy deliberations scheduled for late April and June, the pledge needed to go if a June move was to be on the table.

“Enough Fed officials have said they want to have the debate about hiking rates at the June meeting, so it has to come out,” Ryding said.

Leading economists Larry Summers and Paul Krugman have been urging the Fed not to be too hasty in raising interest rates. “If we raise rates prematurely, we will be very very sorry, while if we wait too long, it will just be annoying,” Krugman said in a speech to the National Association of Business Economics last week.

Falling gas prices have given consumers added money in their pocket books, but that hasn’t translated into more consumer spending. Spending at retail stores have fallen for the past three months, but this could change as warmer weather and higher employment, coupled with lower gas could have consumers opening up their wallets.

No one expects Americans to return to the open wallets of the pre-recession days, nor do many economists want consumers to have debt, as this is recipe for disaster which triggered the sharp decline of the economy in 2008-09.

“Americans learned some lessons from the last downturn and they are saving more money,” noted Frank Friedman, chief financial officer of the global business-consultant firm Deloitte LLP. “Even if wages increase, people will probably save more and that’s a good thing.”

Market Watch reported that Businesses, for their part, have also been cautious spenders since the recovery began in mid-2009, and that also goes a long way in explaining the economy’s shaky performance. The U.S. hasn’t topped 3% growth since 2005, never mind come close to matching its historical 3.3% average.

Now the strong dollar gives companies even more reason to be on the lookout. The euro recently fell to an 11-year low vs. the dollar, giving European firms a big leg up on American companies in the competition for customers.

“The stronger dollar is clearly a headwind on exports,” said Sam Bullard, senior economist at Wells Fargo.

The real question what will be the effect of the Affordable Care Act on the economy, where consumers, especially the Middle Class will face higher premiums and deductible for their health care then they paid in the past.

Only time will tell if the economy is improving or just limping along!