In a stunning announcement the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its advanced estimate of the Gross Domestic Product showing the economy grew only 0.2% in the first quarter. This was far below most estimates of many economists who had expected at least 1% growth.
Market Watch reported that the U.S. grew at a meager 0.2% annual pace in the first three months of 2015, a period marked by severe weather, a major port dispute and a soaring dollar that curbed American exports. Consumer spending, the main engine of growth, slowed sharply to 1.9%, below the average 2.3% increase since the recovery began in mid-2009.
Continuing in its reporting business investment in “structures” such as mining shafts and wells sank 23.1% in the first quarter, reflecting lower spending by U.S. energy companies seeking to cope with suddenly cheap oil. Other companies also cut back on investment amid a surge in the dollar that’s made U.S. goods and services more expensive to sell outside the nation’s borders. Exports tumbled 7.2% while imports edged up 1.8%. A bigger trade deficit subtracts from GDP. Spending on new home construction, meanwhile, rose a scant 1.3% as severe weather hampered builders.
RBS Securities stated, despite the sharp deceleration in Q1, we remain upbeat about the outlook for growth in the U.S. We expect the economy will rebound in Q2 and beyond, similar to last year. Consumption and housing have already shown signs of a rebound. Trade is normalizing as port disruptions wane. In the second half of 2015, the negative drag from business investment associated with the collapse in oil prices will wane and should be more than offset by the positive boost to growth from lower energy costs (as the models have long predicted).”
Forbes magazine commented that the real lingering question is whether weak economic data will convince the Federal Reserve that it makes sense to keep interest rates low for longer. Technically the central bank could raise rates as soon as June but most view that as unlikely.
The other question that has not been addressed is we keep hearing these same pronouncements by leading economists as the economy is improving, but only around 2% growth which is barely enough to cover new entrants into the economy. When is the economy going to break out since the recovery began in June 2009, over six years ago?
The real issues are how will the candidates for president in 2016 handle reviving a sluggish economy and expanding economic opportunities for all Americans. This is what needs to be asked of both Republican and Democrats.
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