With the presidential campaign already under way, each of the aspirants for the White House in 2016 will be articulating positions on various issues, but the one issue which threatens the U.S. the most is our economy.
A few years ago, former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Michael Mullen, stated that the greatest threat to American national security is the enormous national debt. “I’ve said many times that I believe the single, biggest threat to our national security is our debt,” this threat should also extend to the struggling U.S. economy.
When Admiral Mullen made his pronouncement the national debt was around $15 trillion, today it’s over $18 trillion and growing.
The New Yorker reported last month that other countries, especially Asian ones, continue to develop, while the U.S. share of global trade, G.D.P., and wealth will diminish. But that won’t necessarily reflect any failing on America’s part. It is the inevitable consequence of globalization and the development of a single worldwide market economy. Until around 1990, many big countries had cut themselves off from global capitalism, and the opportunities it provides for the transmission of capital and knowledge. Today, Eastern Europe, China, India, and, increasingly, parts of Africa are all active players. As a result, the U.S. economy looms less large, in relative terms, than it once did, even as, by almost any measure, America is still number one.
America may be number one, but serious challenges remain, if left unchecked, will have disastrous consequences for the future viability of this country.
The financial crash of 2008-2009 dealt the U.S. economy a serious blow, one the nation still has not recovered from. In many circles economists often tout how the economy is improving, but if the unemployment report for March is any indicator, then policy makers need to begin addressing the challenges facing the U.S. economy.
The first aspect is the labor participation rate is the lowest since 1978, and with fewer workers in the labor force it has a direct impact on the nations entitlement programs especially Social Security which is a pay as you go system.
A CATO Institute report last July pointed out that in a Congressional Budget Office report, interest on the debt is becoming an ever larger portion of federal spending. This year the federal government will pay $221 billion in interest charges alone. By 2024, that will rise to more than $876 billion. Not long afterward we will be paying a trillion dollars every year just for interest on the debt. By 2035, in fact, interest on the debt will be tied with Medicare as the second largest line item in the federal budget, trailing only Social Security. And this assumes that interest rates won’t rise back to their historical norms (though the CBO assumes they do rise somewhat).
The interest that the nation pays on its national debt is money that is not invested back into the U.S. economy, especially in modernizing an ageing national infrastructure across the country.
Last year the budget deficit was around $500 billion, an improvement from the $1.4 trillion in 2009, but this will be short lived as the CBO reports the deficit will begin to rise in 2016 and again move into the 1 trillion dollar range around 2023.
The Brookings Institute, a progressive leaning think tank in Washington, reported that the CBO estimates the debt will be well over 100 percent of GDP by 2039 under conservative assumptions about spending and revenue. When CBO incorporates its estimates of the impact of the continuing large federal deficits on the nation’s economy, it estimates that the accumulated debt held by the public will reach an astounding 180 percent of GDP by 2039.
This should have all national security strategists concerned about what effect this will have on the defense of the nation. One only has to look back in history to see that whenever policy makers want to reduce spending, it always begins with discretionary spending – and with it its impact always on the defense department. The sequestration, which began in 2013, has had a devastating impact on the Department of Defense’s budget, especially when faced with today’s global challenges.
The drawdown after World War II greatly impacted U.S. efforts in the early stages of the Korean War, and the deficit reductions in the 90’s, hampered military operations after September 11th (9-11).
In the years ahead, entitlement spending will gather a greater share of the nation’s budget allocations and contribute to a greater share of the national debt if left unchecked. Non-discretionary spending has always been the third rail of politics as entitlement spending of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid has remained off limits to reform or adjustments, and can only be adjusted by law.
Neither Congress nor the President has shown much appetite in addressing non-discretionary spending. With the coming presidential elections it will be interesting to see how both Republicans and Democrats handle this real and present threat to the U.S. economy.
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