By Jonathan Easley, The Hill–

New polls show Joe Biden running strong in states President Trump must win to secure a second term, but the race is close in Florida and tightening in Arizona, raising pressure on the Democratic nominee ahead of the first presidential debate.

Biden has several pathways to victory, with new surveys showing him neck and neck with Trump in traditionally red states, such as Texas and Georgia, and in states Trump won comfortably in 2016, like Iowa and Ohio.

The Democratic nominee continues to run up the score over Trump in national polls. Biden’s lead in the former “blue wall” states has been consistent and comfortable for months now.

There are glimmers of hope for Republicans that Trump could prevail in enough of the core battleground states to win the Electoral College.

Biden’s once formidable lead in Florida has vanished and the state appears to be a tossup once again. The polls are all over the place in Arizona, although several recent surveys show the candidates within 1 or 2 points of each other. North Carolina has long been headed for a photo finish.

If Trump holds on to those three states, and if he doesn’t fumble away Texas, Georgia, Iowa or Ohio, Biden would have to run the table in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, giving the Democratic nominee little room for error as the candidates prepare to go head-to-head in the first general election debate.

“We’ve seen a few surveys that reflect a tightening race, but the scale of the tightening is unclear,” said David Winston, a veteran GOP pollster. “For the Trump campaign, it is encouraging to see some positive movement heading into the debate. Having said that, they’ll need more than what they’ve seen so far.”

The polling has been erratic in Arizona, which has only gone for the Democratic nominee once in the past 50 years.

Biden has led in all but a handful of the surveys released this year and FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver gives the Democratic nominee a 65 percent chance of carrying the state.

But Biden’s lead in Arizona has shrunk from 5.7 points in the RealClearPolitics average on Sept. 10 to 3.2 points now.

Recent polls from Reuters-Ipsos, Monmouth University and CBS News have put the race between 1 point and 3 points, with Biden holding the slight advantage.

Recent surveys from the New York Times and CNBC show Biden leading comfortably, in the 6- to 9-point range.

An ABC News-Washington Post survey of likely voters released this week is turning heads, finding Trump ahead in Arizona by 1 point. That survey found Trump with a 15-point lead on the economy, and Biden holding only a 4-point advantage on who would better handle the coronavirus.

Election analysts are waiting for more data, wary of that poll being an outlier.