indexThis week U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry heads to the Syria peace talks in Montreux, Switzerland.  The Peace talks almost failed before they began with the Syrian opposition relenting to pressure from the United States to sit down with representatives of the regime of President Bashar al-Assad.

The other major stumbling block was at the last minute United Nations withdrew Iran’s invitation to the talks, as Iran is Assads chief backer.  U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon surprised everyone by inviting Iran after speaking with Iranian Foreign Minister Javid Zarif, pledging Iran would play a positive and constructive role in Montreux.

Secretary Kerry would welcome Iran’s participation only “if Tehran endorsed earlier diplomatic agreements that called for a transitional government in Syria that would be created by mutual consent among the Syrian factions.

The United States insisted all along for Iran to attend it had to accept a key tenet of the Geneva Communique negotiated between Russian and American officials. In Geneva Communique it states in Section II, paragraph two that a “key step” to “any settlement” of the Syria crisis is the formation of a “transitional governing body” (TGB) with “full executive powers” that will create a “neutral environment in which a transition can take place.”

This was too much for the main western-backed Syrian opposition, but only agreed to attend after U.N Secretary General retracted the invitation he offered to Iran in attending the talks.  

Assad still wins whether Iran attends or not, as a loophole in the Geneva Communique, ” could include members of the present government and the opposition and other groups…formed on the basis of mutual consent.”

Again, Assad wins, just like last September, when the United States was prepared to launch military action in Syria as the result of chemical weapons being used by the Syrian government on its own people. 

Right now over 130,000 people have been killed during the uprising which began in March of 2011, in conjunction with other uprising across the broader Middle East as part of the “Arab Spring.”

Even before the talks begin, it will be a victory for Syrian President Bashar Assad, no matter what transpires, he will almost surely still be in power.  This crisis has weakened the United States and most notably President Obama.     

In August 2011, President Obama stated, “The future of Syria must be determined by its people, but President Bashar al-Assad is standing in their way,” Obama said in a written statement. “For the sake of the Syrian people, the time has come for President Assad to step aside.”

Then in regard to the use of chemical weapons, the president stated in August of 2012, “We have been very clear to the Assad regime, but also to other players on the ground, that a red line for us is we start seeing a whole bunch of chemical weapons moving around or being utilized. That would change my calculus. That would change my equation.

We have communicated in no uncertain terms with every player in the region that that’s a red line for us and that there would be enormous consequences if we start seeing movement on the chemical weapons front or the use of chemical weapons. That would change my calculations significantly.”  

After chemical weapons were used, the president backpedaled on his statements, “First of all, I didn’t set a red line; the world set a red line. The world set a red line when governments representing 98 percent of the world’s population said the use of chemical weapons is abhorrent and passed a treaty forbidding their use even when countries are engaged in war.”

U.S. regional allies are unsure where the U.S. stands or their commitment, neither side trusts the United States.

Russia will do anything to prevent the removal of Assad from power.  I suspect, we will still have the status quo in Syria, and nothing much will have changed in Syria.  The only thing we will have is Assad in power and the killing continues for the Syrian people.    

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