By John Ubaldi, “Ubaldi Reports”

With all the attention focused on the horrific shootings in Dayton, Ohio and El Paso Texas, missing from any substantive policy debate was President Donald Trump announcing that he has directed that the U.S. troop presence be reduced in Afghanistan by 2020.

Afghanistan has become the United States longest war in its history, and soon military personnel will begin deploying to that country that where not even born when the conflict started.

After the horrifying event of September 11th 2001, where close to 3,000 Americas were killed by a terror attack perpetrated by the terror organization al-Qaeda based in Afghanistan and backed by the Taliban, America then begun combat operations against both groups and other affiliated terror factions.

Prior Presidents have had to Deal with Afghanistan

Each president beginning with George Bush has had to deal with the complexities of Afghanistan and since then many analysts have countered that failure was baked into the military operation from the beginning first with President Bush being too distracted with the war in Iraq, President Obama placing a timeline on in which the Taliban could just “wait out’ the U.S. until they grew weary and withdrew, and finally many feel Trump just doesn’t have a plan at all.

Even military commanders over the years have consistently remarked that the United States is making progress on that ground, but that argument has lost its allure years ago, as the various assessments were never based on the reality on the ground.

Currently, the Taliban is gaining ground and controls almost half of all territory inside the country, and many experts believe without the direct support of the U.S. the Afghan government would collapse.

U.S. Currently Negotiating with the Taliban

Currently, the United States is negotiating with the Taliban led by U.S. envoy Zalmay Khalilzad who was born in Afghanistan, is dealing with Taliban chief negotiator Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, but have refused to meet with the current Afghan government until after an agreement is put in place that removes U.S. forces from the country.

Now no U.S. president wants to replicate history when in the waning days of the Vietnam War, America was forced to watch in humiliation as its helicopters were pulling people off the roof of its embassy in Saigon, all coming in backdrop of advancing North Vietnamese troops.

U.S. Negotiations with Taliban Signals American Withdrawal

Senior Fellow at the CATO Institute Doug Bandow writes, negotiations between the U.S. and Taliban have started. Critics complain that withdrawal will reduce Washington’s leverage, but sticking around to prove to the Taliban that Americans will stick around means essentially a permanent presence.  And if a peace pact is signed premised on American backing for the Kabul government, Washington can never withdraw, a la Vietnam.

Senior national security and military experts such as Retired U.S. Army general David Petraeus who served as commander of U.S. Central Command and of coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan and as director of the Central Intelligence Agency cautions against a premature military exit from Afghanistan.

Petraeus believes a premature exit would replicate the situation when the United States disengaged from Iraq in 2011, the country stabilized by the surge of U.S. forces, one in which they routed al-Qaeda in 2007-08.

Afghanistan Different From Iraq

The Afghanistan situation is bit different, as the Taliban is far from defeated, and this includes well over 20 various terror organizations operating such as al Qaeda and ISIS who maintain a presence and are unlikely to participate in any peace agreement.

Those that support having an American presence inside Afghanistan cite Iraq as an example when the U.S. left and the Obama administration switched its attention on its “rebalance” in favor of Asia and also wanted to concentrate on domestic priorities.

This is where with instability in Iraq, and with the Syrian civil war left a vacuum one in which the Islamic State was allowed to rise forcing the United States to return to the region and deploy thousands of military personnel back to the region to deal with the new threat.

Democratic Presidential Candidates Comment on Afghanistan

During last month’s Democratic debate each of the candidates gave a muted response to Afghanistan, former governor of Colorado John Hickenlooper Jr., stated, “If we completely pull our troops out of there, you are going to see a humanitarian disaster,” he said. “We are going to have to be in Afghanistan. Look at the progress that has happened in that country. We are going to turn our backs and walk away from people that have risked their lives to help us and build a different future for Afghanistan and that part of the world?”

New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker echoed similar sediment that setting an “artificial deadline” for any withdrawal could “create a vacuum and the environment for terrorism.” But he did commit to bringing troops home “as quickly as possible.”

Others such as South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, who happens to be the only presidential candidate who has military service and also to have served in Afghanistan, “We will withdraw. We have to,”

Other candidates have stated the same policy that our military involvement, should end, “Around the world we will do whatever it takes to keep America safe. But I thought I was one of the last troops leaving Afghanistan (in 2014) … We’re pretty close to the day when we will wake up to the news of a casualty in Afghanistan who was not born on Sept. 11.”

Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, who served in Iraq with the National Guard would also end US involvement.

Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., stated “What we need is a foreign policy that focuses on diplomacy,” he said, citing the length of the war in Afghanistan. “Ending conflicts by people sitting at a table not by killing each other. I will go to the United Nations and not denigrate it, not attack the UN, but bring countries together … and solve those problems peacefully.”

U.S. Sen. Lindsey Graham has been the most forcefully about not prematurely leaving Afghanistan, “I hope the Trump Administration will not give into absurd Taliban demands for US withdrawal within 18 months ― regardless of conditions on the ground.”

Whoever is president on January 2021 will have to confront the situation in Afghanistan and America’s involvement.