The U.N. Geneva II talks on Syria ended in an impasse Saturday and it is very unlikely the parties will resume negotiations, as the Obama administration has vented irritation at Russia for extending the conflict.
Even Secretary of State John Kerry had harsh words toward Russia, “Russia needs to be a part of the solution and not be contributing so many more weapons and so much more aid that they are in fact enabling Assad to double down,”
On Sunday, Kerry blamed President Bashar al-Assad for the breakdown in talks between the two sides.
“None of us are surprised that the talks have been hard, and that we are at a difficult moment, but we should all agree that the Assad regime’s obstruction has made progress even tougher,” Kerry said.
“Right now, Bashar al-Assad has not engaged in the discussions along the promised and required standard that both Russia spoke up for and the regime spoke up for,” Kerry said during a press conference in Jakarta with Indonesian Foreign Minister Marty Natalegawa.
No date has been set for the continuation of negotiations to end the bloody civil war; which has claimed almost 150,000 lives since it began in 2011 as part of the Arab Spring revolution.
Secretary Kerry further reiterated, “There’s no recess in the suffering of the Syrian people, and the parties and the international community must use the recess in the Geneva talks to determine how best to use this time and its resumption to find a political solution to this horrific civil war.”
This outcome was almost predictable as Assad had no intention of any negotiated settlement since the United States took the only leverage it had off the table; the use of military force.
Syria or Russia were never serious about ending the conflict, and they knew the administration was looking for any way out of the predicament last September. The administration can voice objections at both Russia and Syria, but the no one should have been under any illusion Russia or Syria wanted the conflict.
Russia currently is preserving its last ally in the region, and its naval base and the Assad regime is protecting its own survival and interests.
Let me be clear no one is advocating military action, but the crisis has gotten to the point where the U.S. has few viable options. The time to act or formulate a strategic plan would have been at the onset of the revolution in 2011.
In 2001, the President Obama stated, “He has not led. For the sake of the Syrian people, the time has come for President Assad to step aside.”
Failure to utilize all elements of U.S. strategic power then compounded the problem with the president uttering his emphasis “red line” only compounded the situation.
Last September the president was prepared to utilize military action in response to Assad using chemical weapons on his own people. At the last minute the president decided to seek congressional approval, this after stating he did not need approval from Congress to conduct military action against Syria.
This validated weakness to the Russians, and especially the Syrians, who concluded the president was not serious in his own policy. It was further evident of a chaos and indecisiveness when the Secretary of State uttered a halfhearted comment which the Russia jumped on, and left the administration with a way out, but placed Russia in the driver’s seat in Syria. As they are now back in region as a major player since being ousted by Kissinger after the 1973 Yom Kippur War.
Syria accepted the plan to give up its chemical weapons, but to date they have been dragging their feet and only have given up 4% of their stockpile.
Right now Russia continually sends arms shipments to Syria, blocks any resolutions condemning or punishing Assad, and will do almost anything to protect their only ally in the region.
Syria played for time and with Russia’s backing has little fear from the U.S. right now leaving the administration with few viable options.
The situation has gotten worse with the impending humanitarian disaster of hundreds of thousands of refugees spilling into neighboring countries; such as Jordan and Turkey.
As of right now there is no Plan B strategy for Syria if the resumption of talks fails to materialize.
You can hope the problem goes away, but remember hope is not a strategy!
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