President to Keep 9,800 U.S. Troops in Afghanistan After 2014

On the eve of a major foreign policy address that President Obama will give tomorrow, he has decided to keep 9,800 U.S. military personnel in Afghanistan after this year, but pledging a near-complete total withdrawal by 2016.

The president stated the United States remains committed after 2014 to training Afghan security forces and supporting counterterrorism operations against al-Qaeda forces.

Everything after 2014 is still contingent on achieving a Bilateral Security Agreement, which the president has been unable to obtain from current Afghan President Hamid Karzai.

However, Abdullah Abdullah and Ashraf Ghani Ahmadzai, who are running to replace Karzai, have been receptive to signing a BSA agreement if they are elected president.

In his address today, Obama stated, “The bottom line is that it’s time to turn the page on more than a decade when so much of our foreign policy was focused on the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq,” Obama said in Rose Garden statement. “In addition to bringing our troops home, this new chapter in American foreign policy will allow us to redirect some of the resources saved by ending these two wars to respond more nimbly to the changing threat of terrorism, while addressing a broader set of priorities around the globe.”

There is resistance to the policy put forth by the president, with Sen. Bob Corker, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations, wanting the president re-examine troop strength over the next two years.

“Although I am pleased the president has acknowledged that abandoning Afghanistan at this important moment would undermine the hard-won gains of our armed forces who have sacrificed so much to protect our country since the 9/11 attacks, it is my strong desire that the administration revisit conditions on the ground in 2015 and 2016 to determine if a full withdrawal is warranted,” Corker said.

In the USA Today, Republican Senators Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire, Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and John McCain of Arizona called Obama’s plan “short-sighted.”

The Senators continued, “The President came into office wanting to end the wars he inherited,” the senators said in a joint statement. “But wars do not end just because politicians say so.”

Obama mentioned in his speech, “This is how wars end in the 21st Century,” Obama said. “We have to recognize that Afghanistan will not be a perfect place and it is not America’s responsibility to make it one.”

Seth Jones, of the RAND Corps., an expert on Afghanistan agreed with a similar proposal he co-authored last year.  Jones mentioned in USA Today, “With about 10,000 U.S. troops, commanders in Afghanistan will be able to sustain a special operations unit to help Afghan forces, collect and analyze intelligence on insurgents and terrorists and call in airstrikes when needed.”

Jones continued, “Further reductions should be based on the diminishing threat from insurgents in Afghanistan, he said.  Withdrawing all U.S. forces by 2016, Jones said, seems aimed at satisfying a domestic audience weary of war.”

“In the end, nobody may be happy,” he said.

Michael O’Hanlon, a military analyst at the Brookings Institution, stated the size of the troop levels left after 2014 makes sense, but removing all the troops is lacking.

The real overarching issue is what will be the long term strategy the U.S. will pursue in Afghanistan and in the surrounding region; especially as it relates to Pakistan.

Why would the president announce troop reductions and letting the Afghan Taliban and al-Qaeda forces know of our intentions?   Is this to satisfy a domestic agenda as O’Hanlon mentioned or a precursor to scoring political points ahead of the 2016 presidential election?

Again, what the president and his critics are debating are tactics, but no one has articulated a comprehensive strategy for Afghanistan and the broader region.

Let see what the president says tomorrow during his foreign policy address at West Point.

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