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By Maggie Haberman, New York Times–

It was a blustery and dramatic move, 48 hours before the final Republican debate until the Iowa caucuses: Donald J. Trump stormed out in a rage at Fox News, jeopardizing the network’s ratings and overtaking political headlines.

But the reasons for his withdrawal from the kind of high-profile forum that he has so often dominated may involve more than just hurt feelings.

What may be the most intriguing possible explanation is that a debate, at this point in his neck-and-neck contest with Senator Ted Cruz, would almost certainly subject Mr. Trump to tough questions about vulnerabilities – like his previous support for abortion rights, or his much more recent suggestion that Iowans, the people whose votes he is courting, are stupid.

People who have spoken with Mr. Trump insist he believes he is headed to victory here and wants to play out the clock, a view that was bolstered by a few public opinion polls this week.

But whether he does or not, a debate – particularly one moderated by a network, and an anchor, whom Mr. Trump believes is motivated to challenge him aggressively – amounts to an uncontrollable, high-risk confrontation whose outcome could greatly affect his chances.

The truth could be as simple as advertised: Mr. Trump was enraged when Fox News executives issued a statement mocking him as unserious over his threats to bolt the debate unless the cable channel’s anchor, Megyn Kelly – whom Mr. Trump has attacked for months – was removed as a moderator.

It could also be seen as strategic genius. “Donald Trump knows that by not showing up, he’s owning the entire event,” Rush Limbaugh said on his radio show. “Some guy not even present will end up owning the entire event, and the proof of that is Fox News last night.”

But for Mr. Trump, participating in a debate four nights before the Iowa caucuses would also most likely mean being pelted with many of his past remarks, in a setting in which he could not expect to dominate the microphone or the questioners.

It would be the exact opposite, for example, of the exchange between Mr. Trump and an NBC reporter who, at the same news conference Tuesday at which Mr. Trump pulled out of the debate, tried to confront him about his previous support for abortion rights, including the late-term procedure that opponents call partial-birth abortion.

Mr. Cruz and a well-funded group supporting him have been bombarding Mr. Trump with attack ads using footage of a 1999 interview in which he called himself “very pro-choice” and “pro-choice in all respects.” But when the NBC reporter, Peter Alexander, tried to ask Mr. Trump about that quotation, Mr. Trump repeatedly cut him off, talked over him and turned the tables on him, demanding an apology.

Abortion is not the only subject on which Mr. Trump could be forced to defend or explain his remarks in a tough-minded presidential debate: The ads being run by Mr. Cruz, for example, also show a clip of Mr. Trump, in November, asking “how stupid” the people of Iowa must be for believing Ben Carson’s story of personal redemption.

Mr. Trump’s debate performances debates have not always been unmitigated triumphs: While he acquitted himself well in rebutting Mr. Cruz’s denigration of what he called “New York values” in a Jan. 14 debate in South Carolina, for example, Mr. Cruz savaged Mr. Trump for much of the first half hour.

David Carney, a Republican strategist who ran Rick Perry’s 2012 presidential campaign, said Mr. Trump made a wise move in pulling out of the debate when he could not count on turning in a strong performance. “The debates aren’t his thing,” he said, predicting it would not hurt Mr. Trump with his supporters.

What is undeniable is that Mr. Trump does not like feeling as if he is being backed into a corner – and that the sarcastic statement by Fox News on Tuesday bothered him greatly.

Escalating a back-and-forth with Mr. Trump leading up to the debate, the network openly mocked him for complaining when challenged by aggressive journalists. “We learned from a secret back channel that the ayatollah and Putin both intend to treat Donald Trump unfairly when they meet with him if he becomes president,” the network said.

Referring to Mr. Trump’s survey of his Twitter followers as to whether he should go ahead with the debate, Fox News added: “A nefarious source tells us that Trump has his own secret plan to replace the cabinet with his Twitter followers to see if he should even go to those meetings.”

At his news conference, held in a high school in Marshalltown, Iowa, Mr. Trump called the network’s parody a “wise-guy press release,” and dared Fox News to hold the debate without him.

“Now let’s see how they do with the ratings,” he said.

Fox News has steadfastly stood by Ms. Kelly. Mr. Trump’s aides said they were planning a competing event in Des Moines during the debate, a fund-raiser to help wounded veterans. But his campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, seemed to leave open at least the possibility of a reversal, telling MSNBC on Wednesday morning that he “didn’t think” there was any way Mr. Trump would change his mind.

But in the interview, Mr. Lewandowski dismissed the notion that Mr. Trump might be concerned about answering questions, and pointed out that he had already taken part in six debates.

This is not the first time Mr. Trump has threatened to walk off a debate stage. But Mr. Trump’s earlier brinksmanship over debates came months ago, not on the eve of a vote, when it could shape the opinions of Iowa’s late-deciding caucusgoers.

“This debate is in Iowa,” noted Kellyanne Conway, a Republican strategist and the president of the main “super PAC” supporting Mr. Cruz. If it were anywhere else, she said, the flap with Fox News might not add up to much. But voters here are paying attention.

Still, exactly what they are taking away from the standoff is unclear.

Matt Strawn, a former chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, said he saw no sign yet that it would cut into Mr. Trump’s support.

“Those voters have been drawn to him because he’s willing to flout” establishment rules, Mr. Strawn said.

Would the timing of the dispute make a difference? “Like most of the Donald Trump experience over the last 12 months,” he said, “we’re all going to learn together.”

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