By Jeffry Bartash, Market Watch–
The first look at U.S. growth in the January-to-March quarter is likely to show a weak economy getting even weaker. But Wall Street is also just as likely to downplay first-quarter GDP for painting an excessively dour view of the economy.
What gives? Although gross domestic product has taken a turn for the worse, soaring job creation and a much healthier labor market is telling another story. Namely, that the U.S. is doing better than the overall GDP.
“The signals are quite mixed from the domestic economy,” said Stephen Stanley, chief economist Amherst Pierpont Securities.
Economists view employment as a more accurate weathervane than the more backward-looking GDP report. The U.S. added an average of 209,000 jobs a month in the first quarter and hiring showed no signs of taking a nosedive.
Unless hiring slows dramatically, low GDP readings probably won’t cause much alarm.
“An $18 trillion dollar economy is hard to count,” said Ryan Sweet, director of real-time economics at Moody’s Analytics. “It’s much easier to count jobs than it is to count GDP.”
Here are four things to watch in Thursday morning’s GDP report.
Consumers in front
Economists polled by MarketWatch forecast the economy grew 0.7% in the first three months of 2016, compared to growth rates of 1.4%, 2% and 3.9% in the prior three quarters.
GDP might be negative except for consumers, who drive nearly three-fourths of U.S. economic activity. Consumer spending is expected to rise a modest 1.7% or so in the first quarter, reflecting steady gains in employment. Surveys also show consumers are fairly confident and more financially secure than they’ve been in years.
Pay attention to a special category known as final sales to domestic purchasers, a number that strips out imports and company inventories. Anything about 2% would be seen as a good sign.
Trade headwinds
American exporters have been hurt by a stronger dollar and weak global economy and that’s had a dampening effect on the U.S. economy. Exports and imports both declined in the first quarter, based on preliminary data, and will be a drag on GDP.
Imports is the more critical component. If Americans cut back sharply on consumer-related imports such as new cars, TVs and fine European food, that would be a poor omen.
Imports of consumer goods appeared to suffer a big drop in March, advanced trade data show.
Cautious companies
Home builders are doing just fine amid rising demand for homes, but most businesses have pared investment and spending in buildings and equipment. Sharp declines in both categories are likely in the first quarter.
Without more business investment, the economy will have to rely mainly on the consumer. That’s not a recipe for long-term success. Just don’t expect companies to get gung-ho all of a sudden. The global outlook is still tepid and a tumultuous U.S. election could further add to the anxiety of executives.
“Business investment is likely to be soft this year,” Sweet said. “Uncertainty will be a bigger weight as we get closer to the election.”
Taking stock
The slowdown in the U.S. economy last year forced companies to scale back production after inventories got too large in the spring and early summer. Since inventory building involves production of goods, slower restocking means less economic growth.
The change in inventories is expected to be a drag on GDP yet again in the first quarter. The good news? Once inventories are back to normal levels, companies might boost production a bit — and hire more workers to do so.
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