By Kim Chipman & Derek Wallbank, Bloomberg News–
Andrew Gillum’s quest to become Florida’s first black governor continues to gain momentum with his closely watched campaign, potentially helping lift fellow Democrats running in America’s perennial swing state.
A Quinnipiac University poll Tuesday showed Gillum ahead of Republican opponent Ron DeSantis 52 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, with double-digit leads among women, Hispanics and independents. It’s the third such poll in recent days to show Gillum with a clear lead, as his overall edge in public polling widened to its largest level since Oct. 1, according to RealClearPolitics’ aggregation of survey data.
“Gillum has attracted a coalition of voters that don’t normally turn out in midterms, minorities and young voters, for instance,” University of Central Florida political science professor Aubrey Jewett said in an interview. If that edge holds and translates into higher turnout, Democrats in key U.S. House races as well as state-level candidates down the ballot could rise with him.
Florida Democrat Bill Nelson, seeking re-election to the Senate, has also seen his fortunes rise with Gillum’s. Nelson leads Republican Governor Rick Scott by 52 percent to 46 percent among likely voters in a Quinnipiac pollreleased Monday.
In addition, race ratings in three open House races were shifted in favor of Democrats Tuesday by Cook Political Report, including the 27th district that includes parts of Miami as well as the Daytona Beach area formerly represented by DeSantis.
Gillum, seen as a more progressive Democrat, represents a departure from the “traditional, centrist kind of candidate” that Florida Democrats have tended to run for governor, said Kevin Wagner of Florida Atlantic University. As such, Gillum may be stoking turnout among voters who might not otherwise vote in a midterm election.
Still, while Gillum did particularly well during the primary in the state’s more urban areas like Miami-Dade County, his appeal in more rural parts of Florida is “less clear,” Wagner said.
DeSantis is running as a close ally of President Donald Trump, and even if his appeal has dimmed slightly in a state he won in 2016, the president remains exceptionally popular among his base. Some 91 percent Republicans approve of Trump’s performance as president, according to the latest Gallup Poll, the highest rating he’s had from self-identified Republicans since becoming president.
Another way this race could affect downballot: Whoever becomes Florida’s next chief executive will control the direction of the state Supreme Court by picking three new justices, potentially influencing the state’s upcoming battle over redistricting.
Want more updates? Sign up for our daily newsletter on global politics and follow Bloomberg Politics on Twitter and Facebook.
Balance of Power
Washington Post-Schar School poll of 69 most competitive House races, 63 of which are currently held by Republicans, finds:
- In battleground districts Democrats lead Republicans 50%-47%
- “Candidates from the two parties collectively are running almost even in 48 contested congressional districts won by President Trump in 2016, while Democrats hold the advantage in 21 competitive districts won by Hillary Clinton”
FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich points out polls have skipped over a lot of competitive states and districts; no public polling at all in four of the most competitive House races: CO-03, IN-09, NY-02 and WI-06.
Leave A Comment
You must be logged in to post a comment.