The U.S. Labor Department reported that 209,000 jobs were created in June, and the unemployment rate rising slightly to 6.2%.
CNBC reported that economists expected non-farm payroll growth to hit 233,000 in July, down from an upwardly revised 298,000 in June, and unemployment to fall to 6.0 percent from 6.1 percent. An alternative measure of unemployment which includes the discouraged and those working part-time for economic reasons—the underemployed—rose slightly to 12.2 percent.
CNBC continued to report traders liked the unemployment data a bit, perhaps intuiting that it would keep the Federal Reserve on hold with its ultra-easy monetary policy. Stock futures had been under selling pressure earlier after Thursday’s aggressive sell off, but the market opened flat to mixed.
The Washington Post reported Friday’s labor report that two top officials at the Federal Reserve said Friday that the improving picture in recent months means that the central bank can start withdrawing its support for the recovery more quickly. The Fed is pumping billions of dollars each month into the economy and is expected to end that program in October. In addition, it has kept its benchmark short-term interest rate at zero since 2008.
The market is concerned how soon the Fed will raise interest rates, since they have been near zero since late 2008. This change in Fed policy has the market concerned as it could lead to higher costs for consumers and businesses. Wall Street is also concerned that higher rates will have a direct impact on corporate borrowing, most notably for expansion.
In a press release released on Wednesday the Federal Reserve issued the following statement, that the Labor market conditions improved, with the unemployment rate declining further. However, a range of labor market indicators suggests that there remains significant under-utilization of labor resources.
The Federal Reserve continued to mention that household spending appears to be rising moderately and business fixed investment is advancing, while the recovery in the housing sector remains slow. Fiscal policy is restraining economic growth, although the extent of restraint is diminishing. Inflation has moved somewhat closer to the Committee’s longer-run objective. Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.
Everyone one is concerned on what policies the Fed will enact after the GDP in the second quarter rose to 4%, and with decent employment numbers, but there are areas of the Labor Department’s report that should be of concern to policy makers in Washington.
The Labor Department’s reported, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) was essentially unchanged at 3.2 million in July. These individuals accounted for 32.9 percent of the unemployed. Over the past 12 months, the number of long-term unemployed has declined by 1.1 million.
Secondly, the civilian labor force participation rate, at 62.9 percent, changed little in July. The participation rate has been essentially unchanged since April. The employment-population ratio, at 59.0 percent, was unchanged over the month but has edged up by 0.3 percentage point over the past 12 months.
Finally, the number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers), at 7.5 million, was unchanged in July. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.
The economy may be improving but Main Street is still not seeing the improved economy, all they see are higher food, energy and other related costs.
Until they begin to see improvements in their family budget, the country is still in a recession.
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