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As the crisis in the Ukraine continues and coverage seems to be lacking or fading from the public consciousness a crucial vote by Crimea’s pro-Russian government is scheduled for Sunday.

This vote will determine if the Crimea Peninsula will detach itself from the Ukraine and join Russia, or conceivably choose a different path.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, are in London holding last-ditch talks in an effort to defuse the situation.

A senior State official on Secretary Kerry’s trip to London stated, “This is a matter of giving diplomacy every chance to succeed, and if the Russians choose not to take that course, if President Putin chooses not to avail himself of that opportunity, then, as the President has said, there will be costs. There have already been costs, but there will be more costs.”

Even UK Prime Minister David Cameron and Foreign Secretary William Hague reiterated before the talks began that “We want to see Ukrainians and the Russians talking to each other. And if they don’t, then there are going to have to be consequences,” Cameron said.

A senior State Department official continued to reiterate that “there will be costs” for Russia if the Crimea referendum goes ahead.

“Our analysis is that Russia has encouraged, aided and abetted this referendum process from day one and financed it,” the official said.

Currently Russia has scheduled and staged about 8,500 troops in a military exercise near the eastern border with the Ukraine.  The United States is “very concerned” about the drill and will be asking Lavrov what is meant by it, the senior State Department official said Thursday.

In a meeting on Wednesday with interim Ukraine Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk, President Obama wants normalized and friendly relations with Russia, but also stated.  “We will continue to say to the Russian government that if it continues on the path that is on, then not only us but the international community … will be forced to apply a cost to Russia’s violations of international law,” Obama told reporters. “There is another path available, and we hope that (Russian) President (Vladimir) Putin is willing seize that path.”

The question will Russian President Vladimir Putin heed the threats by the West but most importantly President Obama.  So far he has done everything he wanted with little more than simple rhetoric coming from the White House.

Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow Robert Kahn commented, “One can hope that the threat of sanctions could lead to a de-escalation and negotiation, but it looks increasingly likely at this point that we will head to stage two. Sanctions look set to intensify should Russia annex Crimea after this weekend’s referendum.  Given Russia’s apparent intent in maintaining control over Crimea, they may have to remain in place for a while.  Other measures outside sanctions to punish Russia may also be floated. In this scenario, the creation of ‘off-ramps’ becomes all the more important.”

The looming question if the referendum goes in favor of Putin what sanctions or what actions will the administration peruse in response to this vote?

So far little has been done to punish Putin for his action in the Crimea.  One step the president could when the crisis began; working in conjunction with our European allies is to destabilize the support by Russian oligarchs who support Putin.

As of this writing I have been unable to find out if Russian oligarchs have had their secret bank accounts and tax havens frozen in western financial institutions from Switzerland to Cyprus.

If the president continually states there will be consequences if the referendum moves forward and the Crimea votes to join Russia, the administration better be prepared to have its bluff called!

The administration is coordinating with the European Union, but it currently has had not much success in its efforts especially with German Chancellor Angela Dorothea Merkel of Germany.  

We will see what happens on Sunday[/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]